Dynamics and Stagnation in the Malthusian Epoch by Quamrul Ashraf and Oded Galor. Published in volume , issue 5, pages of American Economic. This paper empirically tests the predictions of the Malthusian theory with respect to both population dynamics and income per capita stagnation. This paper examines the central hypothesis of the influential Malthusian theory, according to which improvements in the technological environment during the.

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This appendix section collects some supplementary figures referred to in the text, and presents some additional findings demonstrating the robustness of the main results. Global Ecology and Biogeography.


Journal of Economic Surveys. However, while geographical factors certainly continued to play a direct role in economic development after the onset of agriculture, it is postulated that the availability of prehistoric domesticable wild plant and animal species did not influence population density in the Common Era other than through ln timing of the Neolithic Revolution.

In the transportation sector, the index is assigned a value of 0 under the absence of both vehicles and pack or draft animals, a value of 1 under the presence of only pack or draft animals, and a value of 2 under the presence of both. The quantitative robustness of the results are verified by the fact that, despite the statistical significance of some of the effects in the year CE under the weighted methodology, the transition-timing and land-productivity channels continue to remain economically non-substantial for income per capita in all three periods, as reflected by estimated elasticities that are still about an order of magnitude smaller than those of population density in the corresponding periods.

The distance, in thousands of kilometers, from a GIS grid cell to the nearest ice-free coastline or sea-navigable river, averaged across the grid cells of a country. The output produced at time tY tis: In particular, as a result of agglomeration and latitudinally-specific technology diffusion, the initial advantage enjoyed by equatorial societies during the Malthusian epoch became more pronounced over time.

From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth.


Quarterly Journal of Economics. This malthusiaan conducts a cross-country empirical analysis of the tge of the influential Malthusian theory. Is your work missing from RePEc? Table 8 presents the results of regressions examining the impact of the timing of the Neolithic Revolution on the level of non-agricultural technological sophistication in the years CE and 1 CE, while controlling for land productivity, absolute latitude, access stagantion waterways, and continental fixed effects.

Table 9 reveals the results of this analysis where, as in Table 7the measure of technology employed is the overall index that incorporates information on the prevalence of sedentary agriculture along with the level of advancement in non-agricultural technologies.


Please review our privacy policy. The x-axis plots the cumulative fraction of the data corresponding to each observation in ascending orderand the y-axis plots the quantiles of the uniform distribution of log income per capita in CE. Consistent with Malthusian predictions, malthuaian regressions indicate highly statistically significant positive relationships between technological sophistication and population density in the two time periods.

Penguin Books Ltd; As argued by Diamondan earlier onset of the Neolithic Revolution has been associated with a developmental head start that enabled the rise of a non-food-producing class whose members were essential for the advancement of written language, science and technology, and for the formation of cities, technology-based military powers and nation states.

Nevertheless, despite exacerbating any systematic bias in favor of rejecting the theory, the results obtained under this weighting procedure continue to demonstrate the insignificance of the land-productivity and transition-timing channels for income per capita in all three historical periods. The analysis consequently adopts the numbers of prehistoric domesticable species of wild plants and animals, obtained from the dataset of Olsson and Hibbsas instruments to establish the causal effect of the timing of the Neolithic transition on population density.

In this regard, it is important to note that the analysis at hand exploits worldwide variation in such factors, which changes dramatically only in geological time. Since historical income per capita data are available for a relatively smaller set of countries, the analysis at hand also conducts corresponding tests for population density using the income per capita data-restricted samples for the three historical periods.

Thus, in accordance with the Malthusian paradigm, income has a positive effect on the number of surviving children. This section examines the Malthusian prediction regarding the neutrality of the standard of living with respect to land productivity and the level of technological advancement, as proxied by the timing of the Neolithic Revolution.

Bibliographic data for series maintained by Stephen Sheppard. Consistent with this assertion, the explanatory powers of the baseline and restricted sample regressions are nearly identical. In light of the potential endogeneity of population and technological progress, this research develops a novel identification strategy to examine the hypothesized effects of technological advancement on population density and income per capita.

The lower carrying capacities of these environments would, in turn, imply lower levels of human population density. Can Epidemics Explain the Three Regimes? Quamrul Ashraf and Oded Galor. Summary — This figure depicts the partial regression lines for the effect of technological sophistication on population density in the years CE and 1 CE, respectively, while controlling for the influence of land productivity, absolute latitude, access to waterways, and continental fixed effects.

The population data reported by the authors are based on a wide variety of country and region-specific historical sources, the enumeration of which would be impractical for this appendix. Thus, variations in favorable biogeographical factors i. Not surprisingly, as observed with earlier IV regressions, the causal impact of the Neolithic transition is, in each case, larger relative to its impact obtained under the OLS estimator, a pattern that is consistent with measurement error in the transition-timing variable and the resultant attenuation bias afflicting OLS coefficient estimates.


Summary — This table demonstrates that the timing of the Neolithic Revolution is positively and significantly correlated with the level of technology in multiple non-agricultural sectors of an economy in the years CE and 1 CE. The incorporation of parental cost for non-surviving children would not affect the qualitative predictions of the model.

Individuals generate utility from consumption and the number of their surviving children: In particular, log land productivity is the first principal component of the logs of these variables, capturing 83 percent of their combined variation.

Thus, AX captures the effective resources epch in production. Finally, regressions 5 and 6 represent the first stage of regressions 3 and 6respectively, in Table 9. In light of the potential endogeneity of population and technological progress Boserup,this research develops a novel identification strategy to examine the hypothesized effects of technological advancement on population density and income per capita.

Review of Economic Dynamics. The results from regressions explaining log population density in the year CE are presented in Table 2. Author manuscript; available in PMC Dec The transition from an epoch of stagnation to an era of sustained economic growth has marked the onset of one of the most remarkable transformations in the course of human history. According to the Malthusian theory, on the other hand, not only will the long-run level staynation income per capita remain unaffected in the region undergoing technological advancement, it will remain unaffected in all regions as well.

Plants and Animals used as instrumental variables The number of domesticable species of plants and animals, respectively, that were prehistorically native to the continent or landmass to which a country belongs.

The epovh of these explanatory channels on income per capita in the corresponding periods, however, are not significantly different from zero, a result that fully complies with Malthusian priors. First, it establishes that the onset of the Neolithic Revolution, which marked the transition of societies from hunting and gathering to agriculture as early as 10, years ago, triggered a sequence of technological advancements that had a significant effect on the level of technology in the Middle Ages.